Is there a chance for peace in Europe?
(Picture ma)
by Wolfgang Effenberger*
(8 January 2022) At the end of the year, on 30 December 2021, Paul Craig Roberts, US economist, publicist and former Deputy Secretary of the Treasury during the Reagan administration, addressed the public with the cautionary article “The old year has departed and war awaits us in the New Year”.
On the same day, Presidents Joseph Biden and Vladimir Putin had a phone call focussing on the implementation of the agreement to begin negotiations on granting the legally binding security guarantees to Russia that Putin had sought on 15 December 2021.
The subsequent statements made by the Kremlin and the White House are revealing. Judge for yourself.
Kremlin statement:
“Vladimir Putin outlined the fundamental approaches underlying the Russian drafts of the treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America and the agreement between the Russian Federation and the member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation [NATO]. He stressed that the negotiations must lead to solid legally binding guarantees that rule out the eastward expansion of NATO and the deployment of weapons that threaten Russia in the immediate vicinity of its borders. Vladimir Putin also stressed that the security of a nation can only be guaranteed if the principle of indivisible security is strictly adhered to.
Both heads of state declared their readiness to engage in serious and substantive dialogue on these issues. It was confirmed that the negotiations would first take place in Geneva on 9 and 10 January and then in the context of the Russia-NATO Council in Brussels on 12 January. On 13 January, the negotiations will also take place at the OSCE. The presidents agreed to personally monitor these negotiations, especially the bilateral ones, in order to achieve results quickly.
In this context, Joseph Biden stressed that Russia and the USA together bear a special responsibility for securing stability in Europe and the whole world and that Washington has no intention of using offensive weapons in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin responded at length to the possibility, mentioned again by Joseph Biden, of imposing “large-scale” sanctions in the event of an escalation of the situation around Ukraine. He pointed out that this would be a grave mistake, risking de facto a complete breakdown of relations between Russia and the USA.”1
White House statement:
“President Biden urged Russia to de-escalate tensions with Ukraine. He made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.
President Biden also expressed support for diplomacy, starting early next year with the bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue, at NATO through the NATO-Russia Council, and at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. President Biden reiterated that substantive progress in these dialogues can occur only in an environment of de-escalation rather than escalation.”2
Ten days earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had delivered his Christmas and New Year’s address in Brussels:
“I also want to take this opportunity to thank our veterans. Especially those who served in Afghanistan. For over twenty years, there have been no terrorist attacks on our countries organised from Afghanistan. We owe this to you. And I pay tribute to all those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom.”
As a reminder, on 7 October 2001 – 25 days after 9/11 – the US, along with the UK, attacked Afghanistan – although there is still no evidence of Afghanistan’s complicity. At the end of October 2001, Warlord Raschid Dostum had 3,000 Taliban prisoners transported in groups of 300 into containers and left to die in agony in the desert. To this day, no one has been held accountable for this.
But back to Stoltenberg:
“As we look to the New Year and our Summit in Madrid, we are adapting our Alliance, to face a more dangerous and competitive world. We are stepping up to address any threats and any challenges. On land, at sea, in the air, in space, and in cyber space.”3
Fourteen days earlier, Stoltenberg had welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Brussels.
“Dear Volodymyr, It’s great to see you again. Welcome to NATO. Ukraine is a highly valued partner of our Alliance. […] We discussed Russia’s substantial military build-up in and around Ukraine. This build up has no justification. It is provocative. It is destabilising. And it undermines security in Europe.”
At this point, it is worth recalling NATO’s large-scale manoeuvre Defender 21: a multinational, multi-phase NATO military exercise which began in March 2021 and ended with the exercise in Georgia in August. It covered more than 30 areas in Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Kosovo and other countries. The focus was around or in the Black Sea.
Back to Stoltenberg on 16 December 2021:
“We call on Russia to return to diplomacy. To de-escalation. And to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Any further aggression against Ukraine will have grave consequences. [...] Since the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, we have carried out the biggest reinforcement of our collective defence in a generation.”
Against this background, Willy Wimmer stated on 3 January 2022: “I want to explicitly draw attention to the fact that any negotiated solution is still possible. However, the order of negotiations, first Russia/USA then Russia/NATO, then OSCE is not conducive to a solution, as a chicken coop per se cannot serve that.”
For Wimmer, the key questions are: Will they succeed strangulating Russia? Will the US still be denied a hostile takeover of Russia?
In the statements of US President Biden, Wimmer recognises the intention: “Action by Ukraine on its territory against separatists, defence of Russian compatriots by Russian forces on Ukrainian territory, advance of Russian forces to Lviv. No NATO tank would be rolling into Kiev, but the NATO embargo war against Russia would go ‘nuclear’.”4
The surgical tools for war in Europe have been on the table since autumn 2014. After the Western-orchestrated coup in Kiev at the end of February 2014, the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) pamphlet 525-3-1 “Win in a Complex World: 2020–2040” was adopted in October 2014. Russia and China are named as the main threats.
On 4 December 2014, the US Congress overwhelmingly passed H. Res. 758 (only 10 votes against).
On the same day, the congressional legend Ron Paul commented on his homepage with the article “Reckless Congress ‘Declares War’ on Russia“:5 “In my opinion, today, in the US House of Representatives, one of the most evil pieces of legislation was passed.”
By H. Res. 758, a resolution was introduced that, literally, “strongly condemns the actions of the Russian Federation under President Vladimir Putin as a policy of aggression against neighbouring states aimed at political and economic domination.“6
And since autumn 2014, among other measures, the infrastructure for a military confrontation in Eastern Europe has been expanded. This includes the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) launched by the EU in 2017 in the military and infrastructural fields. The railway connections from Rotterdam/Bremerhaven/Hamburg via Görlitz to Kiev alone have been expanded far beyond normal transport needs.7
Paul Craig Roberts, mentioned at the beginning, sees an imminent danger of war, as the title of his article already says. For him, NATO representatives have cocked a snook at Putin’s concern for Russia’s security. He no longer makes out any intelligence in the Western world as everyone vies to show how tough they are on Russia.
Roberts interprets Putin’s statement to mean that Russia no longer has any fall-back position, that Russia has reached the extent of its ability to avoid war. “We simply have no room to retreat” means that Russia has done all it can to avoid war and that the Americans must now get off Russia’s doorstep.
According to Roberts, Putin is relying on Biden to show awareness and responsibility and to work for peace by acknowledging Russia’s legitimate security concerns. “But what if,” Roberts says, “Biden is just a figurehead and the military and security complex is calling the shots, intent on profit despite the risk that Putin will not relent?“8
What if Washington’s interest is limited to destabilising Russia in the interests of US hegemony, and if Russia’s security is precisely what Washington intends to undermine and not respect?
“2022 could be the year Washington’s power is broken, Russia takes Ukraine in an act of self-defence, and China takes Taiwan as a demonstration of who is in charge in Asia.
2022 could also be the year the Western world goes down in a nuclear war.“9
| * Wolfgang Effenberger, born 1946, is a journalist and author of numerous books. He publishes in German. Here are three of his latest books: “Wiederkehr der Hasardeure, Schattenstrategen, Kriegstreiber, stille Profiteure 1914 und heute”; “Geo-Imperialismus: Die Zerstörung der Welt”, 2016. Most recently, the following was published "Schwarzbuch EU & NATO", 2021 https://zeitgeist-online.de/2013-11-30-00-57-32/1097-wolfgang-effenberger-schwarzbuch-eu-nato.html |
(Translation “Swiss Standpoint”)
1 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67487
2 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/30/statement-by-press-secretary-
jen-psaki-on-president-bidens-phone-call-with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/
3 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_190293.html
4 Willy Wimmer: Ticken die Uhren nach Genf anders? From 3 January 2022
5 http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2014/december/04/reckless-congress-declares-war-on-russia/
Ronald Ernest “Ron” Paul (*1935) is an American physician and politician, a member of the Republican Party, and was a member of the United States House of Representatives between 1976 and 2013 (with interruptions). He was the Libertarian Party’s candidate in the 1988 US presidential election and a contender for the Republican nomination in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.
6 https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/house-resolution/758/titles
8 Paul Craig Roberts: AS THE OLD YEAR CLOSES, WAR AWAITS US IN THE NEW YEAR https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2021/12/30/as-the-old-year-closes-war-awaits-us-in-the-new-year/
9 Ibid.