Why the Putin-Biden summit was important

by Guy Mettan, independent journalist, Geneva

(24 June 2021) The cheers about the excellence of the Swiss welcome and preparation and the blah blah blah about the return of the United States to the international stage were no doubt justified, but they failed to show why the June 16 meeting between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden was important. Let us attempt an analysis.

First observation. On the diplomatic level, if the summit itself did not lead to any notable breakthrough, as has been said, it will have allowed a first thaw between the two powers to begin. Both Putin and Biden agreed on this. This is not spectacular but it is considerable, as relations between the United States and Russia had become so bad in recent years. The string of sanctions and counter-sanctions since 2014 had created a vicious circle with no end in sight, while the Western press, intoxicated by its own propaganda, pounded “the autocrat Putin” in column after column and on the news without ever trying to understand the Russian point of view.

In addition to the restoration of diplomatic relations and the return of ambassadors, consultations on cybersecurity and disarmament, we can therefore expect the sanctions policy to be put on hold, if not lifted, which will take years. This is no mean feat, even if further discussions will be difficult.

These are important points, but they are secondary to the hidden issue of this tête-à-tête, which is the rise of China. In this sense, it can be said that yesterday's meeting completed the changeover initiated by Obama in 2011 and continued in a brutal and chaotic manner by Trump, namely the concentration of American interests on the Asian zone rather than on Europe and the Middle East. By initiating the withdrawal of his troops from Afghanistan and by meeting Putin, Joe Biden confirmed this choice for the Democrats. It will be remembered that the Democrats, following Hillary Clinton during the 2016 campaign and the disastrous Russiagate that followed, had always sided with the neoconservatives who consider Russia to be the United States' enemy No. 1.

The US is now realising that it has no chance of winning over China unless

• first, it does not close ranks with its G7 and NATO allies as Biden has just done in the last few days and

• secondly, if they let Russia transform its economic cooperation with Beijing into a military alliance.

Such an economic and human power in the heart of the world's main continent would immediately relegate the Americas to peripheral islands, despite all their military power.

From this point of view, Putin, as usual, has perfectly understood the stakes. Yesterday's meeting enabled him to put Russia back on the world stage by making it the third power, i.e. the third world power, capable of arbitrating the balance of power between the two new world superpowers. For Russia, demoted by Western editorialists to the rank of regional and marginal power following the disastrous 1990s, and which knows its weaknesses, this is no small achievement.

Beijing, whose press had been alarmed for weeks about the possible consequences of this meeting for its relations with Russia, was not mistaken. China, which in 1972 played off the United States against the Soviet Union, knows the price of alliances with ulterior motives. And it knows that Putin has not forgotten the hesitation of Chinese support when Russia was once again ostracised by the West in 2014. Beijing will have to be more considerate of its big northern neighbour, which is something Moscow will not be unhappy about.

The losers in this great game are the Europeans, who continue to replay the Cold War scenario and give lessons in human rights, after having allowed themselves to be vassalised by the United States at the G7 and NATO summits at the end of last week. A Russia-Europe summit is due to take place in July, but it is doubtful that it will reshuffle the cards, as European politicians and media remain focused on issues that are perfectly secondary outside Europe, such as the Navalny affair and Belarus. Yet it is Europe that should have played the role of third power, of arbitration and appeasement between the United States and China. With yesterday's meeting, it has fallen behind and will have great difficulties in getting back on track.

Of course, the implementation of this new global deal will take time. A lot of time. There will be resistance and setbacks, especially in Washington. The obsessions of the moment, attempts at poisoning and other operations to destabilise Russia, will continue to dominate journalistic and political headlines. But, since yesterday, it is likely that they will not be able to disrupt the establishment of this new world order, given the urgent need for the United States to contain China.

Switzerland has played well

If we now turn to Switzerland, which is home to major Russian oil and gas trading companies, the headquarters of the Nord Stream pipelines, which ranks ninth among foreign investors in Russia and which hosts many Russian desks in Geneva's private banks, this summit will also have been a good operation. Guy Parmelin, who mentioned economic relations during his meeting with Vladimir Putin, even though the Russian Foreign Ministry had published a note on this subject on the eve of the summit, was able to seize this opportunity. He played his role as president to perfection, it must be said.

On the American side, the achievements are less obvious. The tax issue was left aside, which is no bad thing. The President of the Confederation underlined Switzerland's interest in a free trade agreement with the United States, but this is a long-term project. For his part, Joe Biden insisted on the quality of American fighter planes. But he could be disappointed, as Switzerland, after the failure of the bilateral agreements, would have an interest in buying a European aircraft, for both political and military reasons. Switzerland would have everything to gain in its relations with the EU, without weakening its defence, since this would allow it to consolidate cooperation with its closest neighbours.

Finally, this summit will have made it possible to consolidate international Geneva at a time of weakness in multilateralism. If Switzerland takes advantage of this opportunity to develop a truly inclusive multilateralism that is open to the whole non-European world and not closed to Western obsessions, then we can pop the champagne corks. (Written on 17 June 2021)

(Translation «Swiss Standpoint»)